After a very calm period in the tropical Atlantic, at least two systems seem ready to advance development, naming and possibly strengthening storms, but at this time the general consensus is that the threat to land is less due to these storms.
The National Hurricane Center has just named a new tropical depression, TD 5, in the North Atlantic, more than 1,500 km west of the Azores.
Tropical depression 5 is expected to become a tropical storm, which could lead to Danielle, or Earl if another tropical depression accelerates in size and overtakes TD 5 to be named.
Whether the storm name tropical opinion 5 remains (Danielle seems to be doubtful), predict that it will strengthen and reach hurricane status, but remain in the north Atlantic waters, so without threatening the United States.
“Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) and hurricane-force winds. Strengthening is expected over the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today,” the NHC said on TD 5.
You can see the TD 5 tracking map below, which shows the lack of landfall risk from this storm.
It’s probably interesting to see what could happen to TD 5, or Hurricane Danielle as it could, beyond that.
Forecasts show the system moving into a tropical zone near the west coast of Ireland, with the potential to bring strong winds and damaging weather to northern Europe, particularly Ireland and the UK.
The GFS chart for September 11 below from TropicalTidbits shows the additional trend that TD 5 may have in the future.
However, it is important to note that TD5, Hurricane Danielle (which seems likely to be named), as well as Hurricane Danielle as it is currently expected, will move in the North Atlantic for several days and its final path is difficult to predict.
A separate system, currently Invest 91 L, is also expected to become a prominent storm the next day. If this were to run it would compete with Danielle’s name, but it looks like she could be Hurricane Earl.
The storm is expected to make its way toward the Bahamas in the northern Caribbean, and is expected to reach hurricane strength along the way.
But a turn to the right is predicted, which will take this hot spot away from the Bahamas and the United States, and push it north into the Atlantic.
Depending on the timing of this turn, Bermuda may come in for hurricanes of this order, although the forecasters are only agreeing that it will turn ahead and head northeast of Bermuda.
The GFS chart (as of Sept 8th) below, again from TropicalTidbits, shows Invest 91L (a low level hurricane) once larger and heading north across Bermuda, as well as a TD 5 or tropical storm or Hurricane Danielle to the north.
It seems that there is little certainty in this system, while the GFS model increases rapidly to the strength of the storm and turns it to the north early, where the latest model of the ECMWF does not increase this depression and removes it to the north of Cuba.
Some species see slow growth and turn later, but still have the potential to reach high winds.
So, to summarize, TD 5 looks like it will get the name of tropical storm Danielle and it also has a very good chance to extend the ACE season as a hurricane for a few days, but its only threat seems to be in northern Europe.
At this point, Invest 91L could be a hurricane and increase ACE on its northern journey, but if you believe other models it could shake or become a weak channel in the Bahamas.
There are some events in the tropical regions of the insurance, reinsurance and insurance market (ILS) to watch, but there is no unexpected (seemingly unexpected) change in the weather that makes Invest 91L go to Florida or the east coast of the US, it does not seem much current market conditions.
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