The tropical disturbance known as 98L continues to pass through the southern Caribbean and forecast models continue to show a significant connection to the fall of the hurricane in the United States, somewhere on the Gulf Coast or the Florida Peninsula in the middle of next week.
98L is still expected to become Hurricane Hermine and then Hurricane Hermine within the next day or two, although there is a chance that a warm wave in the eastern Atlantic will hit it developmentally, in which case it could become Hurricane Ian or a tropical storm. Ian instead.
In any case, the forecast models continue to show a good agreement regarding the possibility of hurricanes Hermine or Ian to form in the deep Caribbean Sea, then the increase in speed seems possible as they move north to the Gulf of Mexico, after that. landing on the coast of the United States is now a model agreement.
Here is a composite GFS image showing the direction of 98L, thus Hurricane Hermine (or Ian) from TropicalTidbits.com:
Below you can see the latest guide for 98L (Hermine or Ian), also from TropicalTidbits.com:
There is still a strong consensus among the models for the chance of more hurricanes, from Category 1 to Category 4, to reach the US coast by the middle of next week.
One of the main factors that contribute to the increase in hurricanes is the temperature of the ocean or surface water, which is currently warm enough to support rapid expansion, if all other variables fall into place.
The waters of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are too warm, too warm to support hurricanes, as any hurricane from 98L could enter the Gulf.
At the same time, wind shear forecasts show that this should be too low to warm the ocean as 98L/Hermine/Ian moves toward the United States.
In fact, the Gulf of Mexico appears to be much warmer than 28 degrees C or warmer, so the SSTs can be very helpful for hurricanes, if Hermine or Ian (whatever they are called), will follow the forecast paths.
Currently, two forecasting models are predicting the collapse of the Florida Peninsula.
Below you can see the GFS model:
According to the ECMWF model:
Currently, the CMC, NAVGEM, EC-Fast and ICON models are all picking an easterly path for 98L as it develops into Hurricane Hermine or Ian.
The storm is expected to move west of Cuba, before reaching southern Florida, and making landfall on the western Peninsula.
But there is some uncertainty and 98L could track to the west before becoming a hurricane, which would favor a northerly path into the central Gulf of Mexico and then a storm-like path toward the central Gulf Coast.
At this time it seems that the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Coast hurricane solution would be very useful, for insurance, reinsurance and ILS sales.
This is because hurricanes that enter the Gulf and miss Cuba may have a greater chance of developing and staying longer over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with more fuel to increase ocean temperatures there.
While the prevailing patterns west of Cuba may mean that the hurricane has little time in the eastern Gulf before it hits Florida.
Although the insurance, reinsurance and ILS market always hates to see a Florida hurricane, in this case it may be the lesser of two major losses.
We must add, that there is a great deal of uncertainty in the future, even with the consensus of the model. We could see the hurricane move west and hit the Yucatan or Mexico, saving or weakening the United States.
But, every day that passes, the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf, or near it, continues to be a possible outcome, so insurance, reinsurance and ILS interests should be closely watched as 98L develops in the next few days. .
Whether it’s a hurricane blowing through Florida or the Gulf Coast, or other events that save the US from a major disaster, the potential exists for the first major hurricane event in the US.
As always, BMS Meteorologist Andrew Siffert has provided excellent information on the upcoming storm on the blog.
At the moment, the heat wave looks sad, but there are two reasons why this should be looked at by insurance companies. First is the general environment that Invest 98L will move to the western Caribbean this weekend and early next week is very good for development. When Invest 98L probably passes somewhere between Jamaica and Honduras, the shear will drop below 10 knots, the average humidity will increase, and the disturbance will be crossing the water with the highest temperature of the Atlantic Ocean.
The second major concern is that an anti-cyclone will form in the upper atmosphere above the warm convection. Growing storms destroy this type of air because they support the storm’s outflow, often giving the stark shape one can see on a satellite image of a powerful storm. This sky pattern, along with warm water and low wind shear, sets the stage for rapid expansion in the western Caribbean.
Aside from the uncertainty of how fast Invest 98L will grow, there is little uncertainty in the tailwind for the rest of next week. Model guidance shows greater depth in the jet stream over the eastern US Uncertainty in this low pressure database depends on what happens with Fiona; but, this means that the straight wind in the northwest Caribbean in 5 to 7 days will turn south to north and not east to west. If Invest 98L is too far north to feel the force of the trough, which is also highly doubtful, it could absorb north into the Gulf of Mexico or the Straits of Florida next week.
The next hurricane on the North Atlantic named storm list is Hermine. It is not known whether the African Coast or Invest 98L plan will receive the name, Hermine. The next name after that is Ian. Related to this is that “I” storms have struck out 12 times since 1954, most recently with Ida in 2021. “I” storms don’t do well for the insurance industry. What happens if Hermine is named from Invest 98L? Do you remember the last time Hurricane Hermine came in 2016 and caused insurance companies to lose $250M? Hermine caused significant damage as it made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in the Apalachee Bay area. Considering what has been predicted from other races, one has to wonder if history repeats itself – but this time it’s a run at retirement just once.
There are all kinds of possible scenarios in the Invest 98L table. However, the environment and the bath water seem suitable for some of the Invest 98L to become a named storm. There are concerns that any development will be too fast and storms could result. The question if this happens is, where will it go? The above combination below provides an initial hit. At the moment, the entire Gulf coast is being monitored, and of course, its size will be determined by the railway and other land events, so that it is not too late to describe the results in detail. If you’re a model watcher, check out the ensemble definition. Remember, Invest 98L is not a hurricane and it looks scary in the satellite image, so it’s just a guessing game without skill.
Follow on 2022 Atlantic hurricane and hurricane season on our dedicated website and we will let you know when new information comes out.