After the slow start of what Mapa has become one particularly active 2022 Atlantic hurricane seasonTwo of the most widely followed forecasting groups in the insurance and reinsurance circles have cut their hurricane season and hurricane forecasts.
But before anyone gets too excited that we might be in for an Atlantic hurricane season, it’s important to first remember that it only takes one storm to hit a populated area for the industry to suffer significant damage, and secondly, it’s still a long time coming. -way for the 2022 hurricane season to begin.
The first NOAA is the US National Hurricane Center, which in May called for a 65% chance of a known hurricane season in 2022, predicting between 14 and 21 named hurricanes, between 6 and 10 being hurricanes, while 3 to 6 will end. intensifying into a major hurricane with Category 3 or sustained winds.
Updating its forecast numbers today, NOAA is now giving a 60% chance of a hurricane season.
At the same time, NOAA’s probability of a hurricane event has increased to 30% and the probability remains at 10% for the short term.
NOAA now calls between 14 and 20 storms that are called hurricanes, 6 to 10 that are expected to be hurricanes and 3 to 5 hurricanes in the 2022 Atlantic season.
So far, the season has seen three tropical storms, but no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, meaning NOAA still sees the potential for hurricane activity ahead.
Meanwhile, the Colorado State University climate team led by Phil Klotzbach has also reduced its numbers.
Back in July, the group called for “the strongest Atlantic hurricane season in 2022.”
The latest forecast by the CSU tropical meteorology team calls for 20 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes of category 3 winds or greater to occur in the 2022 Atlantic season.
Now, CSU’s forecast has been lowered to 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, while its Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) forecast is at 150, down from the highest 180, but showing the short time left for the wind make a storm. ACE at this time of the season.
The CSU plan includes three names of hurricanes that have already happened, but with 8 hurricanes and 4 hurricanes it is clear that there will be more insurance, reinsurance and insurance-related products (ILS) affected by the market in the coming months.
He explains, “We have lowered our forecast but continue to call for a 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. The surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean will be slightly warmer than normal, while the Atlantic Ocean will be cooler than normal. The problem of wind shear for days The past 30 in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic is a little weaker than usual. The La Niña trend should continue throughout the Atlantic hurricane season. We continue to expect that some major hurricanes will hit the coast of the United States and the Caribbean. “
The CSU still gives a 68% chance of hurricanes for the US coast, above the 52% average, and a 43% chance of hurricanes for the East Coast including Florida, again above 31%.
The Gulf Coast also appears to have the highest potential, at 43%, only about 30%.
Threats to US coastal areas remain high throughout the season, as hurricanes form.
When we added new weather forecasts to our website where you can track the weather as it develops and find tracking maps and other information about hurricanes as they form, Artemis averaged them all at 19 hurricanes, 8 hurricanes and 4. A major storm, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE ) of 159.
We’ve made a lot of changes with these two new reduced predictions.
Now, the Artemis Average remains at 19 named hurricanes, 8 typhoons and 4 typhoons, and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has been slightly reduced to 153.
However, few of the forecasters change their weather numbers once a season, so maybe we should just look to NOAA and CSU, for now.
This is based on 18 named hurricanes, 8 hurricanes and 4 hurricanes, so there is not much difference at this time.
Finally, the CSU team also provides forecasts for two weeks during this period and the first of them was released today.
They said the forecast did not show any tropical development for the next five days, but that there were indications that a tropical storm could develop in the Atlantic in 10 to 14 days, while there was also a possibility of a tropical storm in the eastern US. coast in the second week of their forecast.
So insurance, insurance and ILS companies may have something hot to watch in less than a week. We will change everything for you in the tropics.
Follow on 2022 Atlantic hurricane and hurricane season on our dedicated website and we will let you know when new information comes out.