Updates to the forecasting process for the development of tropical depression 9, which is expected to become Hurricane Hermine and then Hurricane Hermine, now show an event that no one in the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond, or ILS market wants to see, a large group. hurricane landfall in Florida.
Again, current forecasting is fraught with uncertainty and lack of skill, but NOAA’s forecast update right now means we’re seeing the first hurricane landfall in Florida in years.
A storm forecast showing the hurricane’s landfall on Florida’s west coast can be seen below (see live map here):
There is still some uncertainty as to whether tropical depression 9 will become a storm and then Hurricane Hermine, or Ian, although most forecasts seem to indicate that Hermine is still the one.
Below you can see the latest guide for 98L (Hermine or Ian), also from TropicalTidbits.com:
Florida is now known as a potential destination for this storm as it develops and expands in the Caribbean.
There is still some spread in the models so the forecast is too high at this point, but the consensus of all models has now shifted to the Florida solution.
How dangerous this hurricane, Hermine or Ian, can be, can be related to how it affects the western part of Cuba.
The mountainous part of western Cuba has the ability to prevent the formation of storms, but it should be noted that we have also seen hurricanes that cross Cuba easily without losing much power along the way.
The latter seems to be the answer that the models are leaning towards, with a strong hurricane, about Category 2 that is expected to emerge from the southern Gulf of Mexico and develop rapidly as it approaches Florida, somewhere around Naples, Fort Myers, that. Sarasota is located on the west coast of the Peninsula.
It is an area that has a lot of insurance, so any hurricane that hits there can cost up to two billion dollars, which will have a big impact on insurance, reinsurance and the ILS group.
But we are still far from being certain about the forecast and the storm may go elsewhere, be weakened by Cuba, fail to intensify as expected, or shear more than expected, which will change the direction, strength and ultimately the landfall.
A lot can change between now and next Wednesday.
That said, I have to reiterate that this is the first forecast cone showing landfall in Florida for a while, so it’s worth taking seriously.
While we know there are some cat-related rumors floating around the market (they always do), it’s not a story you can call your defense.
What’s even more amazing is that anyone can afford, or be encouraged to, buy it and right now it seems it’s still early days.
As the weekend draws near, the usual problems present themselves, come Monday it may be too late for the cat to shop again. With greater certainty in the results we can see at the end of the week, either the need for protection disappears, or the price rises to a level that makes it impossible to buy this type of cover.
As a result, it shouldn’t be surprising if there are stories of selling cats on the market, but it will be surprising if someone actually does anything.
NOAA is currently predicting that the first major hurricane to hit Florida will be Monday, although it could be later when Cuba is hit by this storm (Hermine, Ian, or whatever tropical 9 it’s called).
Follow on 2022 Atlantic hurricane and hurricane season on our dedicated website and we will let you know when new information comes out.